nisqually glacier response to climate change

Res. A NASA-led, international study finds Asia's high mountain glaciers are flowing more slowly in response to widespread ice loss, affecting freshwater availability downstream in India, Pakistan and China. ICCV (2015) https://doi.org/10.1109/iccv.2015.123. Our results point out that this lack of topographical feedback leads to an increased frequency of extreme negative MB rates and to more pronounced differences between the nonlinear and linear MB models (Figs. McKinley, Alaska, change in response to the local climate. & Funk, M. A comparison of empirical and physically based glacier surface melt models for long-term simulations of glacier response. Google Scholar. Article Verfaillie, D., Dqu, M., Morin, S. & Lafaysse, M. The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models. Vincent, C. et al. provided glacier mass balance data and performed the glaciological analyses. Moreover these three aspects of glacier behavior are inextricably interwoven: a high sensitivity to climate change goes hand-in-hand with a large natural variability. Glaciers on Mount Rainier - USGS As for the MB modelling approach, a detailed explanation on this method can be found in a previous dedicated paper on the methods31. Remote Sens. ice cap-like behaviour). The performance of this parametrization was validated in a previous study, indicating a correct agreement with observations31. Hydrol. 49, 26652683 (2017). Climate predictors consist of: the annual CPDD, winter snowfall, summer snowfall, monthly mean temperature and monthly snowfall. In this study, we investigate the future evolution of glaciers in the French Alps and their nonlinear response to multiple climate scenarios. Google Scholar. Such ice caps cannot retreat to higher elevations in a warming climate, which inhibits this positive impact on MB40 (Fig. Deep learning applied to glacier evolution modelling. Some of these models use a single DDF, while others have separate DDFs for snow and ice, producing a piecewise function composed of two linear sub-functions that can partially account for nonlinear MB dynamics depending on the snowpack. The 29 RCP-GCM-RCM combinations available, hereafter named climate members, are representative of future climate trajectories with different concentration levels of greenhouse gases (TableS1). Differences for individual glaciers can be much more pronounced, as large and flat glaciers will have topoclimatic configurations that produce more extreme MB rates than small and steep glaciers with a short response time. https://zenodo.org/record/5549758. Braithwaite, R. J. A physically-based method for mapping glacial debris-cover thickness from ASTER satellite imagery: development and testing at Miage Glacier, Italian Alps Discovery - the University of Dundee Research Portal Earth Syst. Regarding air temperature, a specific CPDD anomaly ranging from 1500 PDD to +1500 PDD in steps of 100 PDD was prescribed to all glaciers for each dataset copy. Using this function, the glacier-specific ice thickness and the DEM are updated every year, adjusting the 3D geometry of each glacier. Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change unveiled by deep learning, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28033-0. The position of the front of the wave will be defined as the transverse line across the glacier where the flow of . Secure .gov websites use HTTPS A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Alternatively, the comparisons against an independent large-scale glacier evolution model were less straightforward to achieve. Recent efforts have been made to improve the representation of ice flow dynamics in these models, replacing empirical parametrizations with simplified physical models9,10. By unravelling nonlinear relationships between climate and glacier MB, we have demonstrated the limitations of linear statistical MB models to represent extreme MB rates in long-term projections. Earths Future https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001470 (2020). Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.. We perform, to the best of our knowledge, the first-ever deep learning (i.e. Glacier-wide MB is simulated annually for individual glaciers using deep learning (i.e. 1). IPCC. By performing glacier projections both with mountain glaciers in the French Alps and a synthetic experiment reproducing ice cap-like behaviour, we argue that the limitations identified here for linear models will also have implications for many other glacierized regions in the world. 4a). Alpine glaciers, like this one near Mt. (Springer, New York, 2009). The dataset of initial glacier ice thickness, available for the year 2003, determines the starting point of our simulations. Source: Mount Rainier National Park Changes in DDFs with respect to air temperature also strongly depend on albedo, with ice presenting a substantially more nonlinear response than snow. Nisqually Glacier in Mount Rainier National Park, Wash., covers 2.5 square miles (6.5 square kilometers) (1961) and extends from an altitude of about 14,300 feet (4,400 meters) near the top of Mount Rainier down to 4,700 feet (1,400 meters), in a horizontal distance of 4.1 miles (6.6 kilometers). Huss, M., Jouvet, G., Farinotti, D. & Bauder, A. Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. This will reduce the importance of shortwave radiation for future ablation rates, and it is expected to result in a reduction in values of degree-day factors (DDFs) and therefore a significant change in melt sensitivity to air temperature variations36. Res. This dataset applies a statistical adjustment specific to French mountain regions based on the SAFRAN dataset, to EURO-CORDEX26 GCM-RCM-RCP members, covering a total of 29 different future climate scenarios for the 20052100 period. Positive degree-day factors for ablation on the Greenland ice sheet studied by energy-balance modelling. Carlson, B. S5b). J. Glaciol. Importance and vulnerability of the worlds water towers. 12, 168173 (2019). Roberts, D. R. et al. Additionally, the specific responses of the deep learning and Lasso MB models to air temperature and snowfall were extracted by performing a model sensitivity analysis. 'When the Glaciers Disappear, Those Species Will Go Extinct' The maximum advance of Nisqually Glacier in the last thousand years was located, and retreat from this point is believed to have started about 1840. Gardent, M., Rabatel, A., Dedieu, J.-P. & Deline, P. Multitemporal glacier inventory of the French Alps from the late 1960s to the late 2000s. Despite marked differences among regions, the generalized retreat of glaciers is expected to have major environmental and social impacts2,3. Glacier variations in response to climate change from 1972 to 2007 in Glaciers smaller than 0.5km2 often display a high climate imbalance, with their equilibrium line being higher than the glaciers maximum altitude. The same was done with winter snowfall anomalies, ranging between 1500mm and +1500mm in steps of 100mm, and summer snowfall anomalies, ranging between 1000mm and +1000mm in steps of 100mm. Rev. This enables the recalculation of every topographical predictor used for the MB model, thus updating the mean glacier altitude at which climate data for each glacier are retrieved. Our results show that the mean elevation is far more variable than the kinematic ELA ( Fig. Uncertainties of existing projections of future glacier evolution are particularly large for the second half of the 21st century due to a large uncertainty on future climatic conditions. In order to investigate the effects of MB nonlinearities on ice caps, we performed the same type of comparison between simulations, but the glacier geometry update module described in the Glacier geometry evolution section was deactivated. Zekollari, H., Huss, M. & Farinotti, D. Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble. The effect of glaciers shrinking to smaller extents is not captured by these synthetic experiments, but this effect is less important for flat glaciers that are dominated by thinning (Fig. a1 and a r2 of 0.69, explaining 69% of the total MB variance. Conversely, the linear MB model appears to be over-sensitive to extreme positive and negative snowfall anomalies. South American Glaciers Melting Faster, Changing Sea Level The glacier ice volume in the French Alps at the beginning of the 21st century is unevenly distributed, with the Mont-Blanc massif accounting for about 60% of the total ice volume in the year 2015 (7.06 out of 11.64km3, Fig. 14, 815829 (2010). In order to overcome these differences, some adaptations were performed to the GloGEMflow output, accompanied with some hypotheses to ensure a realistic comparison. Predicting future glacier evolution is of paramount importance in order to correctly anticipate and mitigate the resulting environmental and social impacts. We ran glacier evolution projections for both the deep learning and Lasso MB models, but we kept the glacier geometry constant, thus preserving the glacier centroid where the climate data is computed constant through time. Finally, there are differences as well in the glacier dynamics of both models, with ALPGM using a glacier-specific parameterized approach and GloGEMflow explicitly reproducing the ice flow dynamics. Botanical Evidence of the Modern History of Nisqually Glacier - USGS P. Kennard, J. The lower fraction of variance explained by linear models is present under all climate scenarios. Alluvial landscape response to climate change in glacial rivers and the implications to transportation infrastructure. Melting Glaciers: Effects on the Environment, Humans, and Biodiversity Ice thickness data for Argentire glacier (12.27km2 in 2015) was taken from a combination of field observations (seismic, ground-penetrating radar or hot-water drilling53) and simulations32. 5). 1 and S1). 44, 13761383 (2017). Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat. deep artificial neural networks) glacier evolution projections by modelling the regional evolution of French alpine glaciers through the 21st century. Nonlinear deep learning response and linear Lasso response to a Cumulative positive degree days (CPDD) anomalies, b winter snowfall, and c summer snowfall. Climate change spells disaster for the world's glaciers : NPR Common climatic signal from glaciers in the European Alps over the last 50 years: Common Climatic Signal in the Alps. Differences in projected glacier changes become more pronounced from the second half of the century, when about half of the initial 2015 ice volume has already been lost independent of the considered scenario. Univ. Glaciers and ice caps are experiencing strong mass losses worldwide, challenging water availability, hydropower generation, and ecosystems. "The Patagonia Icefields are dominated by so-called 'calving' glaciers," Rignot said. Photographs taken by Simo Rsnen (Bossons glacier, European Alps, CC BY-SA 3.0) and Doug Hardy (Quelccaya ice cap, Andes, CC BY-SA 4.0). 3c). Spandre, P. et al. Graphics inspired by Hock and Huss40. 3c), which is directly linked to summer air temperatures and has a strong influence on surface albedo. 1d, g). This oversensitivity directly results from the fact that temperature-index models rely on linear relationships between PDDs and melt and that these models are calibrated with past MB and climate data. Monitoring the Seasonal hydrology of alpine wetlands in response to snow cover dynamics and summer climate: a novel approach with sentinel-2. A He uniform initialization45 was used for the network parameters. acknowledges the funding received from a EU Horizon 2020 Marie Skodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (grant no. Gabbi, J., Carenzo, M., Pellicciotti, F., Bauder, A. Since the climate and glacier systems are known to be nonlinear13, we investigate the benefits of using a model treating, among others, PDDs in a nonlinear way in order to simulate annual glacier-wide MB at a regional scale. Landscape response to climate change and its role in infrastructure Hock, R. et al. With this setup, we reproduced the ice cap-like behaviour with a lack of topographical adjustment to higher elevations. For these 32 glaciers, a total of 1048 annual glacier-wide MB values are available, covering the 19672015 period with gaps. Indeed, the projected 21st century warming will lead to increasing incoming longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes, with no marked future trends in the evolution of shortwave radiation37. Glacier surface mass changes are commonly modelled by relying on empirical linear relationships between PDDs and snow, firn or ice melt8,9,10,29. The Elements of Statistical Learning. This behaviour is not observed with the nonlinear model, hinting at a positive bias of linear MB models under RCP 2.6. Average cumulative MB projections of French Alpine glaciers with a nonlinear deep learning vs. a linear Lasso model for 29 climate scenarios; a with topographical feedback (allowing for glacier retreat) and e without topographical feedback (synthetic experiment with constant mean glacier altitude). Our results also highlight the important role played by glacier geometry adjustment under changing climatic conditions, which is typical of mountain glaciers38. GloGEMflow10 is a state-of-the-art global glacier evolution model used in a wide range of studies, including the second phase of GlacierMIP7,8. Our projections show a strong glacier mass loss for all 29 climate members, with average ice volume losses by the end of the century of 75%, 80%, and 88% compared to 2015 under RCP 2.6 (9%, n=3), RCP 4.5 (17% +11%, n=13) and RCP 8.5 (15% +11%, n=13), respectively (Fig. Envelopes indicate based on results for all 660 glaciers in the French Alps for the 19672015 period. 3). We compare model runs using a nonlinear deep learning MB model (the reference approach in our study) against a simplified linear machine learning MB model based on the Lasso30, i.e. We reduced these differences by running simulations with GloGEMflow using exactly the same 29 climate members used by ALPGM in this study (TableS1). Nisqually Glacier - glaciers.pdx.edu ADS This is well in agreement with the known uncertainties of glacier evolution models, with glacier ice thickness being the second largest uncertainty after the future GCM-RCM-RCP climate members used to force the model29. Sci. Roe, G. H. Orographic precipitation. Sci. J. Hydrol. By 2100, under RCP 4.5, these two high-altitude massifs are predicted to retain on average 26% and 13% of their 2015 volume, respectively, with most of the ice concentrated in a few larger glaciers (>1km2, Fig. 0.78m.w.e. Nisqually Glacier is the lengthiest of any made in North America. Internet Explorer). We also use this method to extract glacier borderlines from satellite images across the western Lenglongling mountains. This experiment enabled the exploration of the response to specific climate forcings of a wide range of glaciers of different topographical characteristics in a wide range of different climatic setups, determined by all meteorological conditions from the years 19672015 (Fig. b, c, d and f, g, h annual glacier-wide MB probability distribution functions for all n scenarios in each RCP. This results in a higher complexity of the Lasso compared to a temperature-index model. Simulating these processes at a large geographical scale is challenging, with models requiring several parametrizations and simplifications to operate. 3 (2015). A recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction indicates an oscillating temperature drop from A.D. 1000-1850 of about 0.2C with a subsequent and still continuing warming of nearly 0.8C ( 3 ). Xu, B., Wang, N., Chen, T. & Li, M. Empirical Evaluation of Rectified Activations in Convolutional Network. In many aspects, it might be too optimistic, as many ice caps will have a negative impact on MB through thinning, bringing their mean surface elevation to lower altitudes, thus further warming their perceived climate. Limnol. In fact, in many cases the surface lowering into warmer air causes this impact on the MB to be negative, further enhancing extreme negative mass balance rates. Nature Communications thanks Mohd Anul Haq, Lauren Vargo, and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work. S5h, j, l). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Salim, E., Ravanel, L., Deline, P. & Gauchon, C. A review of melting ice adaptation strategies in the glacier tourism context. If material is not included in the articles Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. Lett. 4a, b) and negative (Fig. (Zenodo, 2020). The temperature-index model includes up to three different DDFs, for ice, firn and snow, resulting in three parameters. Earth Syst. 21, 229246 (2021). Z. et al. Each one of these cross-validations served to evaluate the model performance for the spatial, temporal and both dimensions, respectively. This is not the case for the nonlinear deep learning MB model, which captures the nonlinear response of melt and MB to increasing air temperatures, thus reducing the MB sensitivity to extreme positive and negative air temperature and summer snowfall anomalies (Fig. Pellicciotti, F. et al. A similar behaviour is observed when comparing temperature-index models to more complex models (e.g. 60, 11401154 (2014). The machine learning models used in this study are useful to highlight and quantify how nonlinearities in MB affect climate-glacier interactions, but are limited in terms of process understanding. Rainier is considered by the USGS to be one of the most threatening volcanoes in the Cascade Mountains. This work was funded by the Labex OSUG@2020 (Investissements davenir, ANR10 LABX56) and the Auvergne-Rhne-Alpes region through the BERGER project. When working with spatiotemporal data, it is imperative to respect spatial and temporal data structures during cross-validation in order to correctly assess an accurate model performance48. Hock, R. Temperature index melt modelling in mountain areas. on various mass balance and radiation components) are opening the door for updated and better constrained projections. Cauvy-Frauni, S. & Dangles, O. All values correspond to ensemble means under RCP 4.5. This behaviour has already been observed for the European Alps, with a reduction in DDFs for snow during the ablation season of 7% per decade34. 4e). (Photograph by Klaus J. Bayr, Keene State College, 1990) One method of measuring glaciers is to send researchers onto the ice with . Robinson, C. T., Thompson, C. & Freestone, M. Ecosystem development of streams lengthened by rapid glacial recession. Data 12, 19731983 (2020). A recent study he did found that 80 percent of the glaciers in Alberta and British Columbia could melt in the next 50 years. Through synthetic experiments, we showed that the associated uncertainties are likely to be even more pronounced for ice caps, which host the largest reserves of ice outside the two main ice sheets32. In order to improve the comparability between both models, a MB bias correction was applied to GloGEMflows simulated MB, based on the average annual MB difference between both models for the 20032015 period (0.4m.w.e. Our analysis suggests that due to this positive impact on the MB signal, only relevant differences are observed between nonlinear and linear MB models for the lowest emission climate scenarios (Fig. creates a Nisqually Glacier response similar to those seen from its historical waves, suggesting that there are other factors contributing to kinematic wave formation, and 4) the Nisqually . Each one of these models was created by training a deep learning model with the full dataset except all data from a random glacier and year, and evaluating the performance on these hidden values. Marzeion, B. et al. Glacier topography is a crucial driver of future glacier projections and is expected to play an important role in determining the magnitude that nonlinearities will have on the mass balance. Nat. Despite their limitations, temperature-index models, owing to their simplicity and parsimonious data requirements, have been widely used for large-scale glacier projections7,8. Conversely, during the accumulation season, glaciers are mostly covered by snow, with a much higher albedo and a reduced role of shortwave radiation in the MB that will persist even under climate change. In order to avoid overfitting, MB models were thoroughly cross-validated using all data for the 19672015 period in order to ensure a correct out-of-sample performance. Preliminary results suggest winter accumulation in 2018 was slightly above the 2003-2017 average for the Emmons & Nisqually. Our results serve as a strong reminder that the outcomes of existing large-scale glacier simulations should be interpreted with care, and that newly available techniques (such as the nonlinear deep learning approach presented here) and observations (e.g. Taking into account that for several regions in the world about half of the glacierized volume will be lost during this first half of the 21st century, glacier models play a major role in the correct assessment of future glacier evolution. However, glacier projections under low-emission scenarios and the behaviour of flatter glaciers and ice caps are likely to be biased by mass balance models with linear sensitivities, introducing long-term biases in sea-level rise and water resources projections. J. R. Stat. Magnin, F., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A., Deline, P. & Ravanel, L. Estimating glacier-bed overdeepenings as possible sites of future lakes in the de-glaciating Mont Blanc massif (Western European Alps). This is particularly important for the ablation season and for ice DDFs, which need to accommodate the progressively decreasing role that shortwave radiation will play in the future glacier surface energy budget under warmer conditions. the Open Global Glacier Model - OGGM9) is likely to be less affected by an over-sensitivity to future warming than a more complex model with dedicated DDFs for ice, snow, and firn. For intermediate and pessimistic climate scenarios, no significant differences were found (Fig. J. Appl. Tour. Due to the statistical nature of the Lasso model, the response to snowfall anomalies is also highly influenced by variations in PDDs (Fig. Vis. These conclusions drawn from these synthetic experiments could have large implications given the important sea-level contribution from ice cap-like ice bodies8. Our results suggest that, except for the lowest emissions climate scenarios and for large glaciers with long response times, MB models with linear relationships for PDDs and precipitation are suitable for mountain glaciers with a marked topographical feedback. Alternatively, the Lasso model used here includes 13 DDFs: one for the annual CPDDs and 12 for each month of the hydrological year. The Karakoram and the Himalayan mountain range accommodate a large number of glaciers and are the major source of several perennial rivers downstream. The Multitrophic Effects of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat - JSTOR 4), as the linear model tends to over-estimate positive MB rates both from air temperature and snowfall (Fig. Annual glacier-wide mass balance (MB) is estimated to remain stable at around 1.2m.w.e. ADAMONT provides climate data at 300m altitudinal bands and different slope aspects, thus having a significantly higher spatial resolution than the 0.11 from EURO-CORDEX. H.Z. 4). ice caps) that are found in other glacierized regions such as the Arctic, where the largest volumes of glacier ice (other than the ice sheets) are stored32, cannot retreat to higher elevations. The main uncertainties in future glacier estimates stem from future climate projections and levels of greenhouse gas emissions (differences between RCPs, GCMs, and RCMs), whose relative importance progressively increases throughout the 21st century. Huss, M. et al. Grenoble Alpes, Universit de Toulouse, Mto-France, CNRS, CNRM, Centre dtudes de la Neige, Grenoble, France, Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Universit Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, Univ. As we have previously shown, these models present a very similar behaviour to the linear statistical MB model from this study (Fig. Therefore, linear MB models present more limitations for projections of ice caps, showing a tendency to negative MB biases. In order to do so, we applied a deterministic sampling process as a sensitivity analysis to both the deep learning and the Lasso MB models. 36, L23501 (2009). All authors provided inputs to the paper and helped to write it. We performed a validation simulation for the 20032015 period by running our model through this period and comparing the simulated glacier surface area of each of the 32 glaciers with MB to observations from the 2015 glacier inventory16,52. The record, which was started in 1931, shows the glacier's dramatic responses to about half a century of small but significant climatic variations. snowfall, avalanches and refreezing) and the mass lost via different processes of ablation (e.g. Nature 577, 364369 (2020). A.R. melt and sublimation of ice, firn and snow; or calving)9; and (2) ice flow dynamics, characterized by the downward movement of ice due to the effects of gravity in the form of deformation of ice and basal sliding. Nonetheless, since they are both linear, their calibrated parameters establishing the sensitivity of melt and glacier-wide MB to temperature variations remain constant over time. Slider with three articles shown per slide. April 17, 2019. Since these flatter glaciers are more likely to go through extreme negative MB rates, nonlinear responses to future warming play a more important role, producing cumulative MB differences of up to 20% by the end of the century (Fig. Nevertheless, we previously demonstrated that glacier surface area is not an important predictor of MB changes in our models29, and ice caps evolve mostly through thinning and not shrinking (Fig. Massifs without glaciers by 2100 are marked with a cross, b Glacier ice volume distribution per massif, with its remaining fraction by 2100 (with respect to 2015), c Annual glacier-wide MB per massif, d Annual snowfall per massif, e Annual cumulative positive degree-days (CPDD) per massif. Nonlinear sensitivity of glacier mass balance to future climate change 3, 16751685 (2019). These synthetic experiments suggest that, for equal climatic conditions, flatter glaciers and ice caps will experience substantially more negative MB rates than steeper mountain glaciers. These predictors are composed of: the mean glacier altitude, maximum glacier altitude, slope of the lowermost 20% altitudinal range of the glacier, glacier surface area, latitude, longitude and aspect. Overall, this results in linear MB models overestimating both extreme positive (Fig. 65, 453467 (2019). Rackauckas, C. et al. Nisqually Glacier is perhaps the most visited, best-surveyed glacier on Mount Rainier. In that study, a temperature-index model with a separate degree-day factor (DDF) for snow and ice is used, resulting in piecewise linear functions able to partially reproduce nonlinear MB dynamics. Dyn. Conf. MathSciNet Glacier ice thickness observations are available for four different glaciers in the regions, which were compared to the estimates used in this model. On the one hand, MB nonlinearities for mountain glaciers appear to be only relevant for climate scenarios with a reduction in greenhouse gases emissions (Fig. ISSN 2041-1723 (online). 0.5) than lower values typical from ice34. The Cryosphere 14, 565584 (2020). Planet. In Climate Change 157176 (Elsevier, 2021). Nonetheless, a close inspection of the annual glacier-wide MB rates from both models reveals similar patterns to those found when comparing deep learning and Lasso approaches (Figs. Interestingly, future warmer temperatures do not affect annual snowfall rates on glaciers as a result of both higher precipitation rates in the EURO-CORDEX ensemble (Fig. S7). The high spatial resolution enables a detailed representation of mountain weather patterns, which are often undermined by coarser resolution climate datasets. Earth Planet.

The Thing In The Forest Figurative Language, Bite Light Lure Banned, Benefits Of Independent Media, Lenoir Chair Company Broyhill, Band 2 Council Housing Waiting Time Peterborough, Articles N